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WASHINGTON — A wave of defense spending in Europe and renewed military investment in the United States — driven in part by President Donald Trump’s Golden Dome missile defense program — is reshaping the commercial space industry, investors and executives said Oct.8 at a SpaceNews live event.
“Our industry and the outlook for space has very significantly changed during the course of 2025,” said Mark Boggett, chief executive and general partner at venture capital firm Seraphim Space. “What has changed in 2025? I think the answer to that question is Donald Trump. He’s the answer to a lot of questions at the moment.”
Boggett said Europe’s response to shifting U.S. defense priorities has been particularly dramatic. “There’s now a trillion euros of budget in that market with a very significant need to effectively wean off U.S. capability and create sovereign capability in Europe,” he said. “This has created a massive tailwind. And that’s the biggest driver that I’m seeing at the moment.”
Europe’s defense turn
European governments are funneling unprecedented funding into space and defense ventures, spurred by both Trump-era policy shifts and ongoing security concerns following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Much of the new money is focused on surveillance, communications infrastructure and military space projects designed to ensure strategic autonomy.
Germany alone plans to invest about $41 billion by 2030 to build up its space capabilities, part of a continent-wide effort to treat space as a critical domain of defense.
The push has opened opportunities for private capital. “There’s more investors at the table,” Boggett said. “There’s a lot of investors now that weren’t looking at defense a year ago that are now interested in this market. Dual-use is a relatively attractive way into the market.”
U.S. spending and the Golden Dome effect
In the United States, investors say a similar surge is underway as companies position themselves for Golden Dome, the Pentagon’s planned next-generation missile defense architecture that is expected to rely heavily on satellite assets.
“I think that’s going to be a big driver for how space-based assets will be acquired, not just for Golden Dome, but how they will be acquired for other programs as well,” said Kirk Konert, managing partner at AE Industrial Partners, a private equity firm with holdings in Firefly Aerospace, York Space Systems, Sierra Space, Redwire, and All.Space.
Firefly, which went public earlier this year, announced this week that it plans to acquire SciTec, a defense analytics company. The acquisition is intended to expand Firefly’s footprint in national security programs, including Golden Dome.
“The current environment is creating opportunities for new entrants in the commercial space sector,” Konert said. “It’s providing a big opportunity for our portfolio companies and investors like us.”
Rising appetite for defense tech
Executives said the renewed focus on defense has transformed investor sentiment. “If you rewind 18 months ago, space and defense tech wasn’t one of the best ideas for institutional investors,” Konert said. “Over this past year — and particularly in the last six months — defense tech and space tech are among their top ideas.”
Falling interest rates have helped accelerate the trend, he added. “You’re seeing companies in the space and defense market having access to public markets again. Earlier-stage companies are obviously beneficiaries of that, and that has created some increases in valuations.”
Theresa Condor, chief executive of Spire Global, said the shift in government priorities has been building since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which demonstrated how commercial space systems could support real-world military operations.
“It really showed everyone what commercial space can do in this kind of scenario, whether that’s related to communications or Earth observation,” Condor said. She noted that anti-satellite interference such as GPS jamming is now being observed not only in Eastern Europe but also in the Middle East.
Governments, she added, are increasingly interested in new forms of data collection from orbit, including radio-frequency and electronic signal monitoring. “You’re seeing a lot of interest in data, in the infrastructure to create unique and new data sets, as well as to be able to analyze and understand those data sets,” she said.
Condor pointed to the 2025 Munich Security Conference as a turning point, when “everyone got much more worried about having to rely on the United States.” That concern, she said, has fueled a boom in so-called sovereign space systems — satellites, ground stations and networks that nations own and operate themselves.
A new supercycle
Together, these forces are fueling a global buildup in satellite communications, Earth observation, missile warning and cybersecurity capabilities — and in the process, pushing up company valuations and spurring consolidation.
“I think we’re still in the early innings of what we’re seeing as a long macro super cycle for defense tech spend and space tech spend globally,” Konert said.
Boggett agreed the boom is just beginning. “We’re seeing a whole range of new investors involved, leading to more competition,” he said. And that could set the stage for a new wave of acquisitions across the sector.
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